Brexit betting odds
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Parliamentarians are no less divided than the wider country and have taken various positions. Most voted to Remain. Most then voted to trigger the Article 50 process to leave, and were elected in on that promise to deliver Brexit.
Most — both Remainers and Leavers — now believe the deal on offer is a bad one. Most believe leaving without a deal would be a disaster.
Next a backbench amendment will be passed to block a no deal outcome. That will focus minds upon a way out of the impasse and, with no immediate solution, the government will be forced to secure an extension to Article 50, thus delaying the Brexit date.
A condition of extending A50 will likely be that the UK has a second, legally binding referendum to end the uncertainty.
Putting the question back to the people will become the least, worst option. I expect a backbench amendment will eventually succeed in getting it on the ballot paper — given that it represents the view of half the population and formerly most MPs.
The Prime Minister and her supporters would scoff at this idea. They are adamant that Brexit will be delivered on time and another referendum is out of the question.
They must say that, because the overwhelming majority of Tory voters and members are pro-Brexit. They do not have a majority in parliament, though, and will be forced to its will.
If backbench MPs from all parties spearhead the amendments forcing the referendum, that may suit everybody. Sharing the blame around and to some extent sparing the leaders from direct responsibility.
Labour for instance are torn by the fact that their supporters overwhelmingly back Remain but most of their MPs represent areas that voted Leave.
Any public backing for another referendum will be reluctant, muted and last minute. Plus a growing number of prominent Tories are coming around to the idea.
Not only is a referendum becoming inevitable but even desirable, to end the nightmare. UK to revoke Article 50 before and end Brexit?
Extending Article 50 does not count. What will the UK government officially ration first in What will the UK interest rate be at the end of ? Brexit and the Premier League.
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May fights for Brexit deal support as vote looms Can Theresa May defy the odds and get her Brexit deal passed this week?
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